Long Term vs. Longer Term in Capitalism
Nine days ago, I posted an entry called Short-Term Gain Vs. Long-Term Value where I expanded on Jack Bogle’s quote, “We need a new compensation system where executives are paid for creating intrinsic value for companies, not for creating stock prices. It’s amazing how much more difficult it is to build a good company than it is to build the price of a stock.” And I (along with Bogle…nice to put myself in good company) felt that executives were incented to do the right things to drive shareholder value in the short term, but sometimes at the expense of longer-term shareholder value. In that case, long-term time horizons for a company were maybe 5-7 years. But just to be clear, in the even-longer-term time horizons, the track record for capitalism is impressive.
My brother Jeff referred me to a very interesting article in the Financial Times called “Do Not Let the ‘Cure’ Destroy Capitalism” that dovetails nicely onto the topic of time horizons. In the article, economists Gary Becker (Nobel Laureate ’92) and Kevin Murphy (Clark Medal ’97) point out some of the long-term gains which can be attributed to worldwide expansion of capitalism and free markets. “Consider the following extraordinary statistics about the performance of the world economy since 1980. World real gross domestic product grew by about 145 per cent from 1980 to 2007, or by an average of roughly 3.4 per cent a year. The so-called capitalist greed that motivated business people and ambitious workers helped hundreds of millions to climb out of grinding poverty.” Capitalist greed — it’s a good thing.
This is a simply incredible statistic. In the last 27 years, the total output of goods and services has increased by 145% in real terms. So where we could produce a hypothetical $100 worth of goods and services in 1980 dollars, by 2007 we could produce $245 worth in 1980 dollars. Amazing! This was a period where capitalism flourished in the West, in the Far East, and (post 1990/Soviet collapse) in the Eastern bloc as well. Free markets produced growth on an incredible scale.
Our authors go on: “This allowed real per capita incomes to rise by almost 40 per cent even though world population grew by roughly 1.6 per cent a year over the same period. “ The time period they are talking about spans roughly a generation. My children are currently 10, 8, and 7. When they are my age, if their per capita incomes on an inflation-adjusted basis are 40% higher than my income, I’ll be very excited for them. If, on average, the world’s population is 40% better off, I’ll be very excited for all of us. Can you imagine all the innovations, both meaningfully life-improving as well as just plain cool, that will be available in one generation? But the gifts of growth are not automatic. They are dependent on the the seeds of growth, the incentives to innovate remaining in place. And that is where the free market comes in. “Output, employment and earnings have all been hit by the crisis and will get worse before they get better. Nevertheless, even big downturns represent pauses in long-run progress if we keep the engines of long-term growth in place. This growth depends on investment in human and physical capital and the production of new knowledge. That requires a stable economic environment. Uncertainty about the scope of regulation is likely to have the unintended consequence of making those investments more risky.”
Our esteemed authors continue their article by pointing out the self-correcting nature of markets. They note that most government attempts to correct market problems generally tend to prolong them. As they view today’s landscape, where we have governments engaged in active bailouts, enormous “stimulus” programs (which they discuss as well), and intervention in a whole host of areas, they close with the following statement: “Partly owing to the collapse of the housing and stock markets, hostility to business people and capitalism has grown sharply again. Yet a world that is mainly capitalistic is the ‘only game in town’ that can deliver further large increases in wealth and health to poor as well as rich nations. We hope our leaders do not deviate far from a market-oriented global economic system. To do so would risk damaging a system that has served us well for 30 years.” Well said, gentlemen. Well said.
